September 2026 Freight Market Update: Congestion and Capacity Pressures Build

Global freight conditions are facing renewed pressure as port congestion, severe weather, infrastructure constraints and geopolitical uncertainty converge across several major trade lanes.

As we move further into the traditional peak season, these challenges are creating greater uncertainty around capacity, transit times and freight costs.

For Australian importers and exporters, early planning and flexibility remain key. Here are the major developments McHugh & Eastwood is monitoring this September:

Global Market Snapshot

• Freight rates continue to increase as Typhoon Dolphin and tightening Panama Canal restrictions compounded existing global capacity pressures.
• Regulatory changes and a strengthening El Nino signal are adding longer-term planning complexity across multiple trade lanes and regions.
• Panama Canal draft restrictions tighten further with carriers adding surcharges and some East Coast cargo beginning to shift toward West Coast gateways.
• Rhine water levels fell to just 7 centimeters at Kaub, barge transport handles roughly 35% of inland container movements from Rotterdam and Antwerp, and rail alternatives require up to six weeks’ notice.
• Significant delays out of Northern China due the recent Typhoon activity is causing disruption across global trade-lanes.
• Prolonged congestion across major ports in China only pushes freight rates higher on all major trade-lanes as carriers lose effective capacity and shippers face renewed delays.
• Expect third-quarter uncertainty to increase as tariff changes, port congestion, and geopolitical conflicts continue to create additional global supply chain and transportation risks.
• With global port congestion, ongoing Middle-East disruptions, and resilient import demand leading into traditional peak season, even minor capacity losses could have outsized supply chain impacts.

China Port Congestion

• Due to the recent typhoons in Northern China, there is significant port disruption, particularly in Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao.
• Typhoon Dolphin closed Shanghai and Ningbo ports, stranding over 2.4 million TEUs with vessel backlogs expected to last several weeks, compounding disruption from Typhoon Bavi just weeks prior.
• Waiting times across these ports as follows;
  • Shanghai: Berth waiting time 5-10 days
  • Ningbo: Berth waiting time 3-5 days
  • Qingdao: Berth waiting time 2-3 days
    • *Standard berthing time for loading is generally 2 days across China main ports.
• Port congestion and longer berthing times such as this generally means carriers will omit these ports until the turn-around time improves further reducing functional capacity during peak season.
• The compounding effects of the port congestion and omissions will only see customers orders be pushed back and delayed.
• Port congestion is also heavily impacting schedule integrity with many carriers advising of 10-14 days delay.
• Expect to see carriers take advantage of the congestion by offering premium rates to secure an earlier departures.

The Middle-East & Beyond

• Continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is increasing freight volatility and energy costs, forcing companies to reassess sourcing strategies and supplier exposure.
• Renewed routing concerns through the Suez Canal / Red Sea as recent attacks have ramped with three seafarers killed in the deadliest commercial shipping attack this year.
• Despite the latest attack, both Hapag Lloyd and Maersk continue operating regular services through the Suez.
• Bunker fuel prices remain high due to the Strait of Hormuz challenges, causing carriers to maintain high emergency surcharges.
• Increased levels of emergency fuel and war risk surcharges remain in place across many trades.

How McHugh & Eastwood Can Help

With back-to-back typhoon disruptions at Shanghai and Ningbo and Rhine barge capacity severely constrained, shippers should act now rather than wait for conditions to normalize, as recovery timelines across both issues could extend well into September.

If you have shipments moving through affected Chinese main ports or relying on inland European barge connections, your McHugh & Eastwood account team can help you assess your exposure and identify alternative options to keep your cargo moving.

• Book as early as possible, review contingency lanes before you need them, and keep a close eye on how ongoing port congestion affects your transit times week to week.
• Airfreight remains a viable option where primary shipping lanes are constrained.

At McHugh & Eastwood, we’re committed to helping our customers stay ahead in this rapidly changing industry. Our team of experts is dedicated to providing comprehensive and timely insights to help you make informed decisions and stay competitive.